Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers on June 16, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland GuardiansAway | +125 | -161 | -110 | 44% |
Milwaukee BrewersHome | -149 | +137 | -111 | 60% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
Milwaukee Brewers season record: 43–26 (62% win rate).
- 2
Cleveland Guardians season record: 39–33 (54% win rate).
- 3
Limited game history — projection uses standings data only. Confidence reduced.
- 4
Moneyline edge vs market: -7.1%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Guardians | Brewers |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 54.2% | 62.3% |
| Games Played | 72 | 69 |
| Season RF/G | 4.38 | 4.55 |
| Season RA/G | 4.22 | 4.05 |
| Run Diff/G | 0.17 | 0.49 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 4.30 | 4.30 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.38 | 4.55 |
| Venue RA/G | 4.22 | 4.05 |
| Venue Win% | 54.2% | 62.3% |
| Form (last-5) | 3/5 W | 3/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 1 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 0 | 0 |
| Data Quality | 15% | 15% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.38 | 30% | 1.315 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.05 | 30% | 1.216 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 4.30 | 15% | 0.645 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 4.30 | 15% | 0.645 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.38 | 5% | 0.219 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.05 | 5% | 0.203 |
| Projected runs | 4.2 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.55 | 30% | 1.364 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.22 | 30% | 1.265 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 4.30 | 15% | 0.645 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 4.30 | 15% | 0.645 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.55 | 5% | 0.227 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.22 | 5% | 0.211 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 4.5 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 52.4% | 65% | 34.06% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 55.0% | 25% | 13.75% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 50.0% | 10% | 5.00% |
| Final home win probability | 53% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +52 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +0.9 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | -7 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | -5 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (low) | 41 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -7.1% | ✓ fade |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -10.1% | ✓ fade |
| Over/Under | -0.6% | no edge |
| Brewers Team Total | -1.3% | no edge |
| Guardians Team Total | +4.4% | ✓ value |
| F5 Moneyline | +1.1% | no edge |
| F5 Over/Under | -2.6% | no edge |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Milwaukee Brewers to win this matchup with a 53% win probability. The predicted final score is Guardians 4.2 – Brewers 4.5.
Cleveland Guardians come into this game with a 39-33 record, good for a 54.2% winning percentage.
Milwaukee Brewers are 43-26 at home this season, with a 62.3% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the Cleveland Guardians Team Total Over 3.5, which carries a low confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.