Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros on June 16, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit TigersAway | +102 | -200 | -111 | 50% |
Houston AstrosHome | -123 | +157 | -111 | 55% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
Houston Astros project 4.6 runs: 4.6 RF/G offense vs 4.5 RA/G Detroit Tigers pitching.
- 2
Houston Astros season record: 33–40 (45% win rate).
- 3
Detroit Tigers season record: 29–42 (41% win rate).
- 4
Houston Astros home: 4.5 RF/G, 5.3 RA/G (46% home win rate).
- 5
Houston Astros last 5: 4.2 RF/G, 6.4 RA/G (1d rest, 6 G last 7d).
- 6
Moneyline edge vs market: -6.7%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Tigers | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 40.8% | 45.2% |
| Games Played | 71 | 73 |
| Season RF/G | 4.12 | 4.56 |
| Season RA/G | 4.48 | 5.10 |
| Run Diff/G | -0.37 | -0.53 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 4.30 | 6.40 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.12 | 4.49 |
| Venue RA/G | 4.48 | 5.26 |
| Venue Win% | 40.8% | 45.7% |
| Form (last-5) | 3/5 W | 2/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 1 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 0 | 6 |
| Data Quality | 15% | 100% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.12 | 30% | 1.235 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 5.10 | 30% | 1.529 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 4.30 | 15% | 0.645 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 6.40 | 15% | 0.960 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.12 | 5% | 0.206 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 5.26 | 5% | 0.263 |
| Projected runs | 4.8 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.56 | 30% | 1.368 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.48 | 30% | 1.345 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 4.20 | 15% | 0.630 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 4.30 | 15% | 0.645 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.49 | 5% | 0.224 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.48 | 5% | 0.224 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 4.6 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 47.1% | 65% | 30.61% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 52.7% | 25% | 13.18% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 47.0% | 10% | 4.70% |
| Final home win probability | 49% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +51 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +1.1 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +1.5 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | +5 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (medium) | 59 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -6.7% | ✓ fade |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -35.6% | ✓ fade |
| Over/Under | +0.5% | no edge |
| Astros Team Total | -0.0% | no edge |
| Tigers Team Total | +5.6% | ✓ value |
| F5 Moneyline | +0.4% | no edge |
| F5 Over/Under | -0.8% | no edge |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Detroit Tigers to win this matchup with a 51% win probability. The predicted final score is Tigers 4.8 – Astros 4.6.
Detroit Tigers come into this game with a 29-42 record, good for a 40.8% winning percentage.
Houston Astros are 33-40 at home this season, with a 45.2% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 4.5, which carries a medium confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.