Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros on June 20, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cleveland GuardiansAway | +105 | -204 | -105 | 49% |
Houston AstrosHome | -125 | +165 | -116 | 56% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
Houston Astros project 4.2 runs: 4.5 RF/G offense vs 4.1 RA/G Cleveland Guardians pitching.
- 2
Cleveland Guardians project 4.3 runs: 4.0 RF/G offense vs 5.1 RA/G Houston Astros pitching.
- 3
Houston Astros season record: 36–41 (47% win rate).
- 4
Cleveland Guardians season record: 40–36 (53% win rate).
- 5
Houston Astros home: 4.4 RF/G, 5.2 RA/G (47% home win rate).
- 6
Houston Astros last 5: 3.8 RF/G, 4.8 RA/G (2d rest, 6 G last 7d).
- 7
Cleveland Guardians last 5: 3.0 RF/G, 3.2 RA/G (1d rest, 4 G last 7d).
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Guardians | Astros |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 52.6% | 46.8% |
| Games Played | 76 | 77 |
| Season RF/G | 3.97 | 4.53 |
| Season RA/G | 4.07 | 5.07 |
| Run Diff/G | -0.09 | -0.54 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.03 | 4.42 |
| Venue RA/G | 4.23 | 5.18 |
| Venue Win% | 53.8% | 47.4% |
| Form (last-5) | 3/5 W | 3/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 2 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 4 | 6 |
| Data Quality | 100% | 100% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 3.97 | 30% | 1.192 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 5.07 | 30% | 1.520 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 3.00 | 15% | 0.450 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 4.80 | 15% | 0.720 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.03 | 5% | 0.201 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 5.18 | 5% | 0.259 |
| Projected runs | 4.3 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.53 | 30% | 1.358 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.07 | 30% | 1.220 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 3.80 | 15% | 0.570 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 3.20 | 15% | 0.480 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.42 | 5% | 0.221 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.23 | 5% | 0.212 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 4.2 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 48.3% | 65% | 31.39% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 47.2% | 25% | 11.80% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 50.0% | 10% | 5.00% |
| Final home win probability | 48% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +51 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +0.6 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +10 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | 0 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (medium) | 62 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -7.3% | ✓ fade |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -35.8% | ✓ fade |
| Over/Under | -1.1% | no edge |
| Astros Team Total | -0.4% | no edge |
| Guardians Team Total | +2.8% | no edge |
| F5 Moneyline | -0.0% | no edge |
| F5 Over/Under | -2.2% | no edge |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Cleveland Guardians to win this matchup with a 52% win probability. The predicted final score is Guardians 4.3 – Astros 4.2.
Cleveland Guardians come into this game with a 40-36 record, good for a 52.6% winning percentage.
Houston Astros are 36-41 at home this season, with a 46.8% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the No bet, which carries a medium confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.