Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies on June 21, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh PiratesAway | -227 | -455 | -115 | 69% |
Colorado RockiesHome | +183 | +310 | -106 | 35% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
Colorado Rockies project 5.5 runs: 4.6 RF/G offense vs 4.9 RA/G Pittsburgh Pirates pitching.
- 2
Pittsburgh Pirates project 5.3 runs: 5.0 RF/G offense vs 5.8 RA/G Colorado Rockies pitching.
- 3
Colorado Rockies season record: 30–47 (39% win rate).
- 4
Pittsburgh Pirates season record: 38–39 (49% win rate).
- 5
Colorado Rockies home: 4.6 RF/G, 6.3 RA/G (43% home win rate).
- 6
Colorado Rockies last 5: 8.4 RF/G, 5.4 RA/G (1d rest, 6 G last 7d).
- 7
Pittsburgh Pirates last 5: 5.0 RF/G, 5.6 RA/G (1d rest, 5 G last 7d).
- 8
Moneyline edge vs market: +15.2%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Pirates | Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 49.4% | 39.0% |
| Games Played | 77 | 77 |
| Season RF/G | 5.03 | 4.58 |
| Season RA/G | 4.86 | 5.75 |
| Run Diff/G | 0.17 | -1.17 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 5.00 | 8.40 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 5.60 | 5.40 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.62 | 4.60 |
| Venue RA/G | 4.46 | 6.31 |
| Venue Win% | 48.6% | 42.9% |
| Form (last-5) | 2/5 W | 3/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 1 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 5 | 6 |
| Data Quality | 100% | 100% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 5.03 | 30% | 1.508 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 5.75 | 30% | 1.725 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 5.00 | 15% | 0.750 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 5.40 | 15% | 0.810 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.62 | 5% | 0.231 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 6.31 | 5% | 0.316 |
| Projected runs | 5.3 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.58 | 30% | 1.374 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.86 | 30% | 1.457 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 8.40 | 15% | 1.260 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 5.60 | 15% | 0.840 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.60 | 5% | 0.230 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.46 | 5% | 0.223 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 5.5 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 51.7% | 65% | 33.61% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 45.3% | 25% | 11.33% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 56.0% | 10% | 5.60% |
| Final home win probability | 51% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +50 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +0.7 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +10 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | 0 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (medium) | 61 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +15.2% | ✓ value |
| Run Line (-1.5) | +6.0% | ✓ value |
| Over/Under | -0.7% | no edge |
| Rockies Team Total | +18.8% | ✓ value |
| Pirates Team Total | -15.6% | ✓ fade |
| F5 Moneyline | +15.4% | ✓ value |
| F5 Over/Under | +0.6% | no edge |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Colorado Rockies to win this matchup with a 51% win probability. The predicted final score is Pirates 5.3 – Rockies 5.5.
Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game with a 38-39 record, good for a 49.4% winning percentage.
Colorado Rockies are 30-47 at home this season, with a 39.0% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the Colorado Rockies Team Total Over 4, which carries a medium confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.