Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets on July 10, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Boston Red SoxAway | +115 | -185 | -114 | 47% |
New York MetsHome | -137 | +155 | -108 | 58% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
New York Mets project 4.5 runs: 4.2 RF/G offense vs 3.9 RA/G Boston Red Sox pitching.
- 2
Boston Red Sox project 5.1 runs: 4.1 RF/G offense vs 4.8 RA/G New York Mets pitching.
- 3
New York Mets season record: 40–54 (43% win rate).
- 4
Boston Red Sox season record: 47–45 (51% win rate).
- 5
New York Mets home: 4.6 RF/G, 5.0 RA/G (46% home win rate).
- 6
New York Mets last 5: 8.4 RF/G, 7.2 RA/G (1d rest, 7 G last 7d).
- 7
Boston Red Sox last 5: 6.0 RF/G, 1.6 RA/G (1d rest, 6 G last 7d).
- 8
Moneyline edge vs market: -13.7%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Sox | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 51.1% | 42.6% |
| Games Played | 92 | 94 |
| Season RF/G | 4.09 | 4.19 |
| Season RA/G | 3.89 | 4.79 |
| Run Diff/G | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 6.00 | 8.40 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 1.60 | 7.20 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.60 | 4.59 |
| Venue RA/G | 3.70 | 4.98 |
| Venue Win% | 55.3% | 45.7% |
| Form (last-5) | 5/5 W | 4/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 1 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 6 | 7 |
| Data Quality | 100% | 100% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.09 | 30% | 1.226 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.79 | 30% | 1.436 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 6.00 | 15% | 0.900 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 7.20 | 15% | 1.080 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.60 | 5% | 0.230 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.98 | 5% | 0.249 |
| Projected runs | 5.1 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.19 | 30% | 1.257 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 3.89 | 30% | 1.167 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 8.40 | 15% | 1.260 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 1.60 | 15% | 0.240 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.59 | 5% | 0.229 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 3.70 | 5% | 0.185 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 4.5 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 43.3% | 65% | 28.15% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 46.3% | 25% | 11.58% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 44.0% | 10% | 4.40% |
| Final home win probability | 44% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +54 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +2.6 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +10 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | 0 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (high) | 66 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -13.7% | ✓ fade |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -30.5% | ✓ fade |
| Over/Under | +13.4% | ✓ value |
| Mets Team Total | +4.7% | ✓ value |
| Sox Team Total | +18.2% | ✓ value |
| F5 Moneyline | -4.3% | ✓ fade |
| F5 Over/Under | +3.9% | no edge |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Boston Red Sox to win this matchup with a 56% win probability. The predicted final score is Sox 5.1 – Mets 4.5.
Boston Red Sox come into this game with a 47-45 record, good for a 51.1% winning percentage.
New York Mets are 40-54 at home this season, with a 42.6% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the Over 7.5, which carries a high confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.