Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers on July 10, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia PhilliesAway | +104 | -200 | -123 | 49% |
Detroit TigersHome | -125 | +153 | +103 | 56% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
Detroit Tigers project 4.9 runs: 4.2 RF/G offense vs 4.5 RA/G Philadelphia Phillies pitching.
- 2
Philadelphia Phillies project 3.5 runs: 4.4 RF/G offense vs 4.0 RA/G Detroit Tigers pitching.
- 3
Detroit Tigers season record: 42–50 (46% win rate).
- 4
Philadelphia Phillies season record: 51–42 (55% win rate).
- 5
Detroit Tigers home: 4.4 RF/G, 3.7 RA/G (55% home win rate).
- 6
Detroit Tigers last 5: 5.0 RF/G, 1.4 RA/G (1d rest, 5 G last 7d).
- 7
Philadelphia Phillies last 5: 2.6 RF/G, 6.4 RA/G (1d rest, 6 G last 7d).
- 8
Moneyline edge vs market: +4.7%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Phillies | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 54.8% | 45.7% |
| Games Played | 93 | 92 |
| Season RF/G | 4.39 | 4.25 |
| Season RA/G | 4.49 | 4.00 |
| Run Diff/G | -0.10 | 0.25 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 6.40 | 1.40 |
| Venue RF/G | 3.90 | 4.36 |
| Venue RA/G | 4.19 | 3.68 |
| Venue Win% | 56.3% | 55.3% |
| Form (last-5) | 2/5 W | 5/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 1 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 6 | 5 |
| Data Quality | 100% | 100% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.39 | 30% | 1.318 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.00 | 30% | 1.200 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 2.60 | 15% | 0.390 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 1.40 | 15% | 0.210 |
| Venue RF/G | 3.90 | 5% | 0.195 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 3.68 | 5% | 0.184 |
| Projected runs | 3.5 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.25 | 30% | 1.274 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.49 | 30% | 1.347 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 5.00 | 15% | 0.750 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 6.40 | 15% | 0.960 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.36 | 5% | 0.218 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.19 | 5% | 0.209 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 4.9 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 63.8% | 65% | 41.47% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 48.0% | 25% | 12.00% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 68.0% | 10% | 6.80% |
| Final home win probability | 60% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +56 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +5.5 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +10 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | -5 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (high) | 67 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +4.7% | ✓ value |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -1.8% | no edge |
| Over/Under | -6.2% | ✓ fade |
| Tigers Team Total | +6.2% | ✓ value |
| Phillies Team Total | -10.7% | ✓ fade |
| F5 Moneyline | +10.2% | ✓ value |
| F5 Over/Under | -5.6% | ✓ fade |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Detroit Tigers to win this matchup with a 60% win probability. The predicted final score is Phillies 3.5 – Tigers 4.9.
Philadelphia Phillies come into this game with a 51-42 record, good for a 54.8% winning percentage.
Detroit Tigers are 42-50 at home this season, with a 45.7% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the Detroit Tigers Moneyline, which carries a high confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.