Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies on June 29, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Pittsburgh PiratesAway | -105 | -227 | -110 | 51% |
Philadelphia PhilliesHome | -114 | +169 | -112 | 53% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
Philadelphia Phillies project 4.7 runs: 4.4 RF/G offense vs 4.8 RA/G Pittsburgh Pirates pitching.
- 2
Pittsburgh Pirates project 5.0 runs: 5.1 RF/G offense vs 4.4 RA/G Philadelphia Phillies pitching.
- 3
Philadelphia Phillies season record: 47–37 (56% win rate).
- 4
Pittsburgh Pirates season record: 41–42 (49% win rate).
- 5
Philadelphia Phillies home: 4.8 RF/G, 4.7 RA/G (55% home win rate).
- 6
Philadelphia Phillies last 5: 4.8 RF/G, 4.0 RA/G (1d rest, 7 G last 7d).
- 7
Pittsburgh Pirates last 5: 7.2 RF/G, 4.2 RA/G (1d rest, 6 G last 7d).
- 8
Moneyline edge vs market: -3.9%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Pirates | Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 49.4% | 56.0% |
| Games Played | 83 | 84 |
| Season RF/G | 5.11 | 4.38 |
| Season RA/G | 4.77 | 4.36 |
| Run Diff/G | 0.33 | 0.02 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 7.20 | 4.80 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.62 | 4.76 |
| Venue RA/G | 4.44 | 4.71 |
| Venue Win% | 48.7% | 54.8% |
| Form (last-5) | 3/5 W | 4/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 1 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 6 | 7 |
| Data Quality | 100% | 100% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 5.11 | 30% | 1.532 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.36 | 30% | 1.307 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 7.20 | 15% | 1.080 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 4.00 | 15% | 0.600 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.62 | 5% | 0.231 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.71 | 5% | 0.236 |
| Projected runs | 5.0 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.38 | 30% | 1.314 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.77 | 30% | 1.432 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 4.80 | 15% | 0.720 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 4.20 | 15% | 0.630 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.76 | 5% | 0.238 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.44 | 5% | 0.222 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 4.7 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 46.8% | 65% | 30.42% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 52.9% | 25% | 13.23% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 56.0% | 10% | 5.60% |
| Final home win probability | 49% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +50 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +1.2 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +10 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | 0 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (medium) | 62 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -3.9% | no edge |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -38.9% | ✓ fade |
| Over/Under | +6.9% | ✓ value |
| Phillies Team Total | +7.8% | ✓ value |
| Pirates Team Total | +10.0% | ✓ value |
| F5 Moneyline | +2.9% | no edge |
| F5 Over/Under | +4.0% | no edge |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Pittsburgh Pirates to win this matchup with a 51% win probability. The predicted final score is Pirates 5 – Phillies 4.7.
Pittsburgh Pirates come into this game with a 41-42 record, good for a 49.4% winning percentage.
Philadelphia Phillies are 47-37 at home this season, with a 56.0% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the Over 8.5, which carries a medium confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.