Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians on June 12, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Detroit TigersAway | -109 | -244 | -110 | 52% |
Cleveland GuardiansHome | -110 | +173 | -111 | 52% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
Cleveland Guardians project 4.1 runs: 4.0 RF/G offense vs 4.3 RA/G Detroit Tigers pitching.
- 2
Detroit Tigers project 4.6 runs: 4.1 RF/G offense vs 4.1 RA/G Cleveland Guardians pitching.
- 3
Cleveland Guardians season record: 37–33 (53% win rate).
- 4
Detroit Tigers season record: 29–40 (42% win rate).
- 5
Cleveland Guardians home: 4.0 RF/G, 4.0 RA/G (50% home win rate).
- 6
Cleveland Guardians last 5: 3.4 RF/G, 5.6 RA/G (2d rest, 6 G last 7d).
- 7
Detroit Tigers last 5: 6.0 RF/G, 3.6 RA/G (1d rest, 5 G last 7d).
- 8
Moneyline edge vs market: -5.8%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Tigers | Guardians |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 42.0% | 52.9% |
| Games Played | 69 | 70 |
| Season RF/G | 4.13 | 4.04 |
| Season RA/G | 4.26 | 4.13 |
| Run Diff/G | -0.13 | -0.09 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| Venue RF/G | 3.97 | 3.97 |
| Venue RA/G | 4.60 | 4.03 |
| Venue Win% | 31.4% | 50.0% |
| Form (last-5) | 3/5 W | 1/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 2 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 5 | 6 |
| Data Quality | 100% | 100% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.13 | 30% | 1.239 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.13 | 30% | 1.239 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 6.00 | 15% | 0.900 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 5.60 | 15% | 0.840 |
| Venue RF/G | 3.97 | 5% | 0.199 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.03 | 5% | 0.201 |
| Projected runs | 4.6 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.04 | 30% | 1.213 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.26 | 30% | 1.278 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 3.40 | 15% | 0.510 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 3.60 | 15% | 0.540 |
| Venue RF/G | 3.97 | 5% | 0.199 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.60 | 5% | 0.230 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 4.1 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 44.6% | 65% | 28.99% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 55.1% | 25% | 13.78% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 38.0% | 10% | 3.80% |
| Final home win probability | 47% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +52 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +2.1 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +10 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | -5 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (medium) | 59 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -5.8% | ✓ fade |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -38.3% | ✓ fade |
| Over/Under | -0.7% | no edge |
| Guardians Team Total | -0.5% | no edge |
| Tigers Team Total | +4.8% | ✓ value |
| F5 Moneyline | +0.8% | no edge |
| F5 Over/Under | -2.3% | no edge |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Detroit Tigers to win this matchup with a 53% win probability. The predicted final score is Tigers 4.6 – Guardians 4.1.
Detroit Tigers come into this game with a 29-40 record, good for a 42.0% winning percentage.
Cleveland Guardians are 37-33 at home this season, with a 52.9% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the Detroit Tigers Team Total Over 4.5, which carries a medium confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.