Colorado Rockies vs Athletics Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Colorado Rockies vs Athletics on June 13, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado RockiesAway | +180 | +100 | -118 | 36% |
AthleticsHome | -217 | -120 | -105 | 68% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
Athletics project 5.6 runs: 4.4 RF/G offense vs 5.8 RA/G Colorado Rockies pitching.
- 2
Colorado Rockies project 4.9 runs: 4.3 RF/G offense vs 5.0 RA/G Athletics pitching.
- 3
Athletics season record: 33–35 (49% win rate).
- 4
Colorado Rockies season record: 26–43 (38% win rate).
- 5
Athletics home: 4.8 RF/G, 6.5 RA/G (42% home win rate).
- 6
Athletics last 5: 6.4 RF/G, 7.2 RA/G (2d rest, 5 G last 7d).
- 7
Colorado Rockies last 5: 3.6 RF/G, 6.6 RA/G (1d rest, 5 G last 7d).
- 8
Moneyline edge vs market: -12.3%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Rockies | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 37.7% | 48.5% |
| Games Played | 69 | 68 |
| Season RF/G | 4.30 | 4.38 |
| Season RA/G | 5.75 | 4.99 |
| Run Diff/G | -1.45 | -0.60 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 3.60 | 6.40 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 6.60 | 7.20 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.00 | 4.84 |
| Venue RA/G | 5.11 | 6.55 |
| Venue Win% | 34.3% | 41.9% |
| Form (last-5) | 2/5 W | 3/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 2 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 5 | 5 |
| Data Quality | 100% | 100% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.30 | 30% | 1.291 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.99 | 30% | 1.496 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 3.60 | 15% | 0.540 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 7.20 | 15% | 1.080 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.00 | 5% | 0.200 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 6.55 | 5% | 0.327 |
| Projected runs | 4.9 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.38 | 30% | 1.315 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 5.75 | 30% | 1.726 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 6.40 | 15% | 0.960 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 6.60 | 15% | 0.990 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.84 | 5% | 0.242 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 5.11 | 5% | 0.256 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 5.6 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 56.9% | 65% | 36.98% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 54.5% | 25% | 13.63% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 56.0% | 10% | 5.60% |
| Final home win probability | 56% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +54 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +2.7 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +10 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | 0 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (high) | 66 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -12.3% | ✓ fade |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -20.0% | ✓ fade |
| Over/Under | -27.7% | ✓ fade |
| Athletics Team Total | -28.4% | ✓ fade |
| Rockies Team Total | -12.3% | ✓ fade |
| F5 Moneyline | -6.1% | ✓ fade |
| F5 Over/Under | -26.5% | ✓ fade |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Colorado Rockies vs Athletics Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Athletics to win this matchup with a 56% win probability. The predicted final score is Rockies 4.9 – Athletics 5.6.
Colorado Rockies come into this game with a 26-43 record, good for a 37.7% winning percentage.
Athletics are 33-35 at home this season, with a 48.5% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the Under 13.5, which carries a high confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.