Atlanta Braves vs St.Louis Cardinals Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Atlanta Braves vs St.Louis Cardinals on July 11, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Atlanta BravesAway | -167 | -385 | -110 | 63% |
St.Louis CardinalsHome | +140 | +260 | -111 | 42% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
St.Louis Cardinals project 4.6 runs: 4.6 RF/G offense vs 3.9 RA/G Atlanta Braves pitching.
- 2
Atlanta Braves project 5.1 runs: 4.9 RF/G offense vs 4.5 RA/G St.Louis Cardinals pitching.
- 3
St.Louis Cardinals season record: 48–44 (52% win rate).
- 4
Atlanta Braves season record: 54–38 (59% win rate).
- 5
St.Louis Cardinals home: 3.7 RF/G, 4.5 RA/G (49% home win rate).
- 6
St.Louis Cardinals last 5: 3.4 RF/G, 5.4 RA/G (1d rest, 7 G last 7d).
- 7
Atlanta Braves last 5: 6.4 RF/G, 6.8 RA/G (1d rest, 6 G last 7d).
- 8
Moneyline edge vs market: +3.4%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Braves | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 58.7% | 52.2% |
| Games Played | 92 | 92 |
| Season RF/G | 4.92 | 4.57 |
| Season RA/G | 3.89 | 4.53 |
| Run Diff/G | 1.03 | 0.03 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| Venue RF/G | 5.15 | 3.71 |
| Venue RA/G | 3.96 | 4.47 |
| Venue Win% | 57.4% | 49.0% |
| Form (last-5) | 2/5 W | 1/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 1 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 6 | 7 |
| Data Quality | 100% | 100% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.92 | 30% | 1.477 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.53 | 30% | 1.360 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 6.40 | 15% | 0.960 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 5.40 | 15% | 0.810 |
| Venue RF/G | 5.15 | 5% | 0.257 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.47 | 5% | 0.223 |
| Projected runs | 5.1 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.57 | 30% | 1.370 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 3.89 | 30% | 1.167 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 3.40 | 15% | 0.510 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 6.80 | 15% | 1.020 |
| Venue RF/G | 3.71 | 5% | 0.186 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 3.96 | 5% | 0.198 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 4.6 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 44.7% | 65% | 29.06% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 46.3% | 25% | 11.58% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 44.0% | 10% | 4.40% |
| Final home win probability | 45% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +53 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +2.1 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +10 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | -5 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (medium) | 60 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +3.4% | no edge |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -45.6% | ✓ fade |
| Over/Under | +10.9% | ✓ value |
| Cardinals Team Total | +15.6% | ✓ value |
| Braves Team Total | +6.4% | ✓ value |
| F5 Moneyline | +7.0% | ✓ value |
| F5 Over/Under | +7.6% | ✓ value |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Atlanta Braves vs St.Louis Cardinals Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects Atlanta Braves to win this matchup with a 55% win probability. The predicted final score is Braves 5.1 – Cardinals 4.6.
Atlanta Braves come into this game with a 54-38 record, good for a 58.7% winning percentage.
St.Louis Cardinals are 48-44 at home this season, with a 52.2% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the Over 8, which carries a medium confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.