Arizona Diamondbacks vs St.Louis Cardinals Prediction
Expert prediction, odds analysis, and best bet for Arizona Diamondbacks vs St.Louis Cardinals on June 22, 2026.
Win Probability
Best Bet
Current Odds
API-Sports| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total | Impl. Prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Arizona DiamondbacksAway | +120 | -175 | -116 | 45% |
St.Louis CardinalsHome | -141 | +144 | -105 | 59% |
Additional Full-Game Markets
First 5 Innings (F5)
Statistical Analysis
- 1
Arizona Diamondbacks project 4.4 runs: 4.3 RF/G offense vs 4.2 RA/G St.Louis Cardinals pitching.
- 2
St.Louis Cardinals season record: 40–34 (54% win rate).
- 3
Arizona Diamondbacks season record: 39–37 (51% win rate).
- 4
Arizona Diamondbacks last 5: 5.4 RF/G, 6.6 RA/G (1d rest, 6 G last 7d).
- 5
Moneyline edge vs market: -4.2%.
How This Prediction Was Made
Show model inputs ▼
Team Data Inputs
| Metric | Diamondbacks | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Season Win% | 51.3% | 54.1% |
| Games Played | 76 | 74 |
| Season RF/G | 4.30 | 4.38 |
| Season RA/G | 4.62 | 4.22 |
| Run Diff/G | -0.32 | 0.16 |
| Last-5 RF/G | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| Last-5 RA/G | 6.60 | 4.30 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.03 | 4.38 |
| Venue RA/G | 4.72 | 4.22 |
| Venue Win% | 41.7% | 54.1% |
| Form (last-5) | 2/5 W | 3/5 W |
| Rest Days | 1 | 1 |
| Games (Last 7d) | 6 | 0 |
| Data Quality | 100% | 15% |
Run Projection Formula
Projected runs = weighted blend of offense + opponent defense (season & recent) + venue split.
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.30 | 30% | 1.290 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.22 | 30% | 1.265 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 5.40 | 15% | 0.810 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 4.30 | 15% | 0.645 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.03 | 5% | 0.201 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.22 | 5% | 0.211 |
| Projected runs | 4.4 | ||
| Component | Value | Wt | Contrib |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season RF/G | 4.38 | 30% | 1.315 |
| Opp Season RA/G | 4.62 | 30% | 1.387 |
| Recent RF/G (5G) | 4.30 | 15% | 0.645 |
| Opp Recent RA/G | 6.60 | 15% | 0.990 |
| Venue RF/G | 4.38 | 5% | 0.219 |
| Opp Venue RA/G | 4.72 | 5% | 0.236 |
| Home bonus | 0.12 | — | 0.120 |
| Projected runs | 4.9 | ||
Win Probability Blend (Home)
Three signals are blended to produce the final home win probability.
| Signal | Prob | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Run margin (projected score diff) | 55.0% | 65% | 35.75% |
| Team strength (win% + venue) | 53.1% | 25% | 13.28% |
| Recent form (last-5 W/L) | 53.0% | 10% | 5.30% |
| Final home win probability | 54% | ||
Confidence Score Breakdown
| Factor | Points |
|---|---|
| Base (win probability distance from 50%) | +53 |
| Run margin bonus (larger margin = more predictable) | +2 |
| Data quality adjust (more game history = tighter estimates) | +1.5 |
| Form agreement (recent form aligns with season record) | -5 |
| Market odds available (confirms edge vs vig) | 0 |
| Final confidence score (low) | 51 |
Market Edge Analysis
Edge = model probability minus market-implied probability. Positive edge = model sees value vs the book.
| Bet Type | Edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -4.2% | ✓ fade |
| Run Line (-1.5) | -7.7% | ✓ fade |
| Over/Under | +2.9% | no edge |
| Cardinals Team Total | +5.4% | ✓ value |
| Diamondbacks Team Total | +5.8% | ✓ value |
| F5 Moneyline | +2.7% | no edge |
| F5 Over/Under | -0.8% | no edge |
4%+ edge threshold required for a value bet recommendation.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St.Louis Cardinals Prediction — Expert Analysis
Our model projects St.Louis Cardinals to win this matchup with a 54% win probability. The predicted final score is Diamondbacks 4.4 – Cardinals 4.9.
Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game with a 39-37 record, good for a 51.3% winning percentage.
St.Louis Cardinals are 40-34 at home this season, with a 54.1% overall win rate. Home field advantage gives them an additional 3-4% boost to their projected win probability.
Our best bet for this matchup is the St.Louis Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5, which carries a low confidence rating based on current statistical inputs.